Scientific basis for a long-term warming limit for Africa: Adequacy of the 2° C limit

December 8th, 2011
This Concept Note puts forward an argument for a focused project to consider the implications
of various degrees of warming for Africa. The purpose of the proposed study would be to
provide Africa, through the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) and other institutional role
players,and via the IPCC AR5 (due in 2014), with scientifically sound and economically
feasible input for the UNFCCC review. This would help guide the UNFCCC Conference of
the Parties in its decision as to whether or not the two-degree objective is adequate
or needs to be strengthened.

OneWorld Concept Note

Publications

December 5th, 2011
Our publishing unit produces accessible publications translating research on a needs basis,
as well as media appropriate to various contexts, in accordance with international editorial 
production benchmarks. Our aim is to communicate effectively at a range of levels, providing
stakeholders with knowledge and information that is reliable, useful, timely, and accessible. 
Thought leadership, underpinned by targeted stakeholder engagement, guides the translation of
scientific evidence into credible, useful, relevant and accessible knowledge products, either
demand-driven or generated out of our own internal engagement with the key programme areas
upon which our work is focused. 

OneWorld Publications

OW_POLICY BRIEF_Climate change adaptation

Internationally, scientific and policy debates on the secu­rity implications of climate change
have recently gained great momentum. Today, there is little doubt that climate change poses
one of the key challenges for global eco­nomic development and human wellbeing and may put 
peace and security at risk, as natural resources such as water and food become scarce.

OW_CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS_Climate change and security 

This outcome statement follows on Barnett and Adger’s framework on climate change and security 
that integrates three bodies of research (Barnett, 2007): vulnerabilities of local and social
groups to climate change, livelihoods, security and conflicts and the role of the state in 
development and peacemaking, peace-building and conflict transformation. 

OW_Security bundle

Climate change poses many serious risks, including increasing food shortages and
terri-torial losses caused by rising sea levels. A debate on the 20th of May in
New York high-lighted the potential implications of these two factors for global\
peace and security. 

RCCP Publications

Knowledge for Adaptation Series Publications

3 Climate and the MDGs 

This report investigates the relationships between the millennium development goals(MDGs) and
projected climate change in southern Africa. The analysis rests on four core themes, namely 
water resources, food security, health and energy supply.

4 Transboundary Water

This report was built around three fundamental elements: qualitative assessment,scenario
analysis and representative basin case studies. Three river basins, the okavango, zambezi 
and limpopo, were selected, using a variety of  key criteria.

Climate Change Policy Brief Series

1 Climate change

This brief focuses more on the impacts of climate on production, and further work is required
to develop understanding and policy responses to climate impacts on the other food security
components (Ziervogel and Ericksen, 2010).

 2 Climate finance

The Adaptation Fund (AF), operational since 2009, and the Green Climate Fund (GCF), to be
operational in the near future, are climate finance mechanisms designed by the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

3 Africa’s Water

It is now well established that national economies are linked closely to fresh water 
availability, and this is especially relevant in arid and semi-arid regions and countries 
relying heavily on hydropower.  

Research Brief Series

Research Brief 2

Southern Africa will not uniformly feel the impacts of future climate change. Countries
in the region have different challenges and vary in their ability to adapt to changing
climate and extreme weather conditions. RCCP scientists have explored the use of mapping
as a tool for identifying southern Africa’s vulnerability hotspots and its readiness to
deal with climate change.

Research Brief 3

Hard-won progress toward the MDGs in southern Africa is at risk not only from the global
economic crisis but also from climate change, via the climate-sensitive development drivers
water, energy, food and health. The region needs to ‘climate-proof’ its development
goals.

Research Brief 4

Climate change is playing a significant role in economic and human development and security,
much of it mediated through the impact of changes to water resources.

Research Brief 5

Rain-fed crops in southern Africa will be severely impacted by climate change, causing
yield reductions. Traditional African crops and hardier new varieties offer advantages
over conventional maize varieties.

Research Brief 6

Climate change will affect food security in southern Africa directly and indirectly. Current
gains in food production look likely to reverse, adding to increasing reliance on food imports.
People at risk are those who are already food-insecure.

Research Brief 7

Dealing with the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production and food
security in the region will require dismantling obstacles to regional trade to increase
the flow of agricultural commodities between countries in the region, says a report on
hunger and food security in southern Africa.

Research Brief 10

More than half the population of southern Africa will be living in urban areas by 2030,
says UN Habitat. Urban areas suffer from particular vulnerabilities to climate change
from lack of water and poor sanitation, to flooding, health threats and any number of 
other disasters.

Research Brief 11

Women and unemployed youth are particularly at risk from the fallout of climate change in
southern Africa. However, these two groups are a source of talent and energy, and should be
developed to strengthen communities as climate change progressively becomes a daily reality.

Research Brief 12

African states have not had much success in accessing large financial pledges by developed 
countries to finance climate change in poor countries. Targeted capacity building and
institutional linking of science, vulnerability, project design and funding will assist
in this process.

Negotiators Index Series

Negotiators index

Prepared for the African group of negotiators by the regional climate change programme (RCCP).

Climate Change Adaptation, Conflict and Cooperation Documentation

November 30th, 2011

Background documentation

OW_CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS_Climate change and security

OW_POLICY BRIEF_Climate change adaptation

Climate Change Panel Discussion

 

 The potential for conflicts arising from climate change in Africa, and threats to global peace and security are increasingly receiving attention at international and continental levels. The United Nations Security Council has recognized the links between climate change and security, calling for more concerted and coordinated efforts, especially at a regional level.